The efficacy of no-till agriculture for increasing C in soils has been questioned in recent studies. This is a serious issue after many publications and reports during the last two decades have recommended no-till as a practice to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions through soil C sequestration. Our objective was to investigate the possibility that the lack of C increase in some no-till systems may be due to changes in crop productivity and subsequent C input to soils. A meta-analysis of 74 published studies was conducted to determine if crop production varies between no-till and full tillage management. The results were used to estimate the change in C input due to no-till adoption and the influence on soil organic C stocks at steady-state using the Century model. We found that crop productivity can be reduced with adoption of no-till, particularly in cooler and/or wetter climatic conditions. The influence varies, however, and crop productivity can even increase in some regions following adoption of no-till. In cases where crop production and C inputs decreased due to no-till, the potential reduction in soil organic C stocks was offset by a decrease in soil C decomposition rates, except in cases where C inputs declined by 15% or more. Challenges still remain for understanding the full impact of no-till adoption on soil organic C stocks, such as changes on C inputs in deeper subsurface horizons, the influence of variation in NT seeding methods on soil disturbance, and changes in SOM stabilization due to saturation limits in mineral soil fractions, which may further modify net C storage in soils.
