Trends and uncertainty of the climate change impacts on hydrology, soil erosion, and wheat production during 2010-2039 at El Reno in central Oklahoma, USA, were evaluated for 12 climate change scenarios projected by four GCMs (CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, and HadCM3) under three emissions scenarios (A2, B2, and GGa). Compared with the present climate, overall t-tests ( n=12) show that it is almost certain that mean precipitation will decline by some 6% (>98.5% probability), daily precipitation variance increase by 12% (>99%), and maximum and minimum temperature increase by 1.46 and 1.26 degrees C (>99%), respectively. Compared with the present climate under the same tillage systems, it is very likely (>90%) that evapotranpiration and long-term soil water storage will decease, but runoff and soil loss will increase despite the projected declines in precipitation. There will be no significant changes in wheat grain yield. Paired t-tests show that daily precipitation variance projected under GGa is greater than those under A2 and B2 ( P=0.1), resulting in greater runoff and soil loss under GGa ( P=0.1). HadCM3 projected greater mean annual precipitation than CGCM2 and CSIRO ( P=0.1). Consequently, greater runoff, grain yield, transpiration, soil evaporation, and soil water storage were simulated for HadCM3 ( P=0.1). The inconsistency among GCMs and differential impact responses between emission scenarios underscore the necessity of using multi-GCMs and multi-emission scenarios for impact assessments. Overall results show that no-till and conservation tillage systems will need to be adopted for better soil and water conservation and environmental protection in the region during the next several decades.
