from background: "This first report focuses on a detailed agricultural sector analysis evaluating the impacts on agriculture as a result of providing carbon offsets and supplying energy feedstocks from agricultural based products and by-products from crops and livestock while incorporating projected wind and solar impacts from renewable energy farms. Subsequent reports will address impacts on the forest sector and will incorporate economic analysis of the nation's economy conducted at the state and national levels. from summary: "KEY FINDINGS Under a properly constructed cap and trade program:
* Net returns to agriculture are projected to be positive - including up to $13 billion annually in additional revenues for agriculture and forestry - and exceed baseline projections for eight of nine crops analyzed;
*Income from offsets and from market revenues is higher than any potential increase in input cost including energy and fertilizer;
* At projected carbon prices of up to $27 per MtCO2e, afforestation of cropland will not occur;
* Major shifts in commodity cropland use does not occur;
* Demand for bioenergy feedstocks will cause significant shifts to hay and dedicated energy crop acreage from pasture conversion;
* Crop and beef prices are not disrupted; and
* Biomass feedstock production creates significant direct and indirect reduction in greenhouse gases (GHG). This includes a direct reduction of an accumulated 460 million metric tons CO2 equivalent. If emissions are regulated by EPA without the benefit of multiple offsets:
* Net farm income is projected to fall below baseline projections;
* Agriculture is subjected to higher input costs with no opportunity to be compensated for the GHG reduction services the sector provides;
* Impacts to beef production are uncertain; and
* If afforestation and grassland sequestration are the only offsets allowed, and carbon prices are as high as $160 per MtCO2e, sixty million acres of cropland could be converted to forests and grasslands.
