Citrus canker, caused by Xanthomonas citri pv citri, affects all Citrus production regions worldwide with tropical or subtropical climate. This work studies the relationship between rain, temperature, susceptibility of lemon leaves, and the appearance of symptoms of canker The evolution of citrus canker symptoms during five months of vegetative growth in a lemon Lisbon type orchard with disease background were analyzed. The data used were generated in the assessment of three growth flushes in plots with six (Treatment I) and ten (Treatment II) copper oxide sprays respectively. Daily rainfall and temperature were registered every 20 minutes. The parameters of the logistic curve of disease progress were calculated. Shoot age at disease outbreak and maximum disease value were determined. Rain was assumed to initiate an infection event from which a model of hour-degree accumulation was applied to predict the date for new symptoms appearance. Under the conditions of local infection, only the rains over 10 mm produced symptoms at the predicted date according to the model used. It was demonstrated that tissue susceptibility became a secondary factor once the environmental conditions became favourable to dissemination and symptoms expression. The method used demonstrated to be an useful tool to predict the risk of new symptoms appearance and to plan monitoring of the disease.
