Nitrogen (N) lost from cropping is one of the major threats to the health of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in northern Australia, and there are government initiatives to change farming practices and reduce N losses from farms. Sugarcane is the dominant crop in most catchments draining into the GBR lagoon, especially those of the Mackay Whitsunday region (8400 km(2)) where sugarcane represents >99% of cropping in the catchments, and is grown with large applications of N fertiliser. As farmers and farming systems adapt to a future requiring lower environmental impact, the question arises whether climate change may influence the effectiveness of these changes, an issue rarely considered in past water quality studies. To address this question we used the APSIM farming-systems model to investigate the complex interactions between a factorial of five proposed sugarcane management systems, three soil types, three sub-regional climatic locations and four climate change projections (weak, moderate and strong, with historical climate as a 'control'). These projections, developed from general circulation models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios, estimated that median annual rainfall would be reduced by up to 19%, and maximum and minimum temperatures increased by up to 0.5 degrees C and 0.6 degrees C, respectively. Management practices, such as tillage, fallow management and N inputs, were grouped into five systems according to the perceived benefits to water quality. For example; Management System A grouped together zero tillage, soybean rotation crops, reduced N inputs and controlled traffic practices. While at the other end of the scale, System E included many severe tillage operations, bare fallows, high N inputs and conventional row spacing; practices that are still used in some areas. Importantly, this study parameterised controlled traffic systems, which is considered an important component of 'best' management in the GBR catchment, but for which water quality benefits have yet to be widely quantified. The study predicted that the improvement in farm management needed to meet water quality improvement goals will not be greatly affected by climate change. However, without any interventions, the frequency of years with very high N losses, and hence extreme ecological risk, was predicted to increase by up to 10-15%. Compared with traditional practices, improved management systems were predicted to reduce N losses by up to 66% during these years. The results support continued adoption of improved management systems to achieve proposed water quality targets in both the current and a range of potential future climates. However, there are important uncertainties about the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on plant assimilation rates and the characterisation of extreme climate events that deserve further study.
