In shallow water table-controlled environments, surface water management impacts groundwater table levels and soil water dynamics. The study goal was to simulate soil water dynamics in response to canal stage raises considering uncertainty in measured soil water content. Water and Agrochemicals in the soil, crop and Vadose Environment (WAVE) was applied to simulate unsaturated flow above a shallow aquifer. Global sensitivity analysis was performed to identify model input factors with the greatest influence on predicted soil water content. Nash-Sutcliffe increased and Root Mean Square Error reduced when uncertainties in measured data were considered in goodness-of-fit calculations using measurement probability distributions and probable asymmetric error boundaries, implying that appropriate model performance evaluation should be carried out using uncertainty ranges instead of single values. Although uncertainty in the experimental measured data limited evaluation of the absolute predictions by the model, WAVE was found a useful exploratory tool for estimating temporal variation in soil water content. Visual analysis of soil water content time series under proposed changes in canal stage management indicated that sites with land surface elevation of less than 2.0-m NGVD29 were predicted to periodically experience saturated conditions in the root zone and shortening of the growing season if canal stage is raised more than 9 cm and maintained at this level. The models developed could be combined with high-resolution digital elevation models in future studies to identify areas with the greatest risk of experiencing saturated root zone. The study also highlighted the need to incorporate measurement uncertainty when evaluating performance of unsaturated flow models.
